On November 30, 2022, OpenAI launched the AI chatbot ChatGTP, making the latest generation of AI technology widely available.
In the months since then we have seen Italy Ban ChatGTP Over privacy concerns, major tech luminaries Suspension of AI system developmentand even eminent researchers say we should be ready launch an airstrike In data centers associated with rogue AI.
The rapid deployment of AI and its potential impact on human societies and economies is now clearly in the spotlight.
What does AI mean for productivity and economic growth? Will it usher in an era of automated luxury for all, or will it simply exacerbate existing inequalities? What does that mean for human roles?
Economists have studied these issues for many years.My colleague Yixiao Zhou and I investigated their results In 2021, it turns out that we are still far from a definitive answer.
the big picture of the economy
For the past half century or so, workers around the world have smaller part of the country’s total income
At the same time, growth in productivity (how much output can be produced with a given amount of input, such as labor or materials) slowed downThis period also saw great development in the creation and implementation of information technology and automation.
Better technology should improve productivity. The failure of the computer revolution to realize these gains is a puzzle that economists call Solow’s Paradox.
Can AI save the world’s productivity from a prolonged slump, and if so, who will benefit? Many people are interested in these questions.
Consulting firms often use AI economic panacea, policymakers are more concerned about potential unemployment. Unsurprisingly, economists take a more cautious view.
abrupt change
Perhaps the single biggest caveat is the great uncertainty about the future trajectory of AI technology.
Compared to previous technological leaps such as railroads, motorized transportation and, more recently, the gradual integration of computers into all aspects of life, AI has the potential to become pervasive much more rapidly. And it can do this with much less capital investment.
This is because the application of AI is primarily a software revolution. Much of the necessary infrastructure is already in place, including computing devices, networks, and cloud services. No need for the time-consuming process of building a physical railroad or broadband network. You can use ChatGPT and a horde of similar burgeoning software right from your phone.
Also, using AI is relatively cheap, greatly reducing the barriers to entry. This is related to another big uncertainty about AI: the scope and domain of impact.
AI has the potential to fundamentally change the way we work in many areas, from education and privacy to the structure of global trade. AI has the potential to change not just individual elements of the economy, but its broader structure.
Adequately modeling such complex and radical changes is extremely difficult, and no one has yet done so. But without such modeling, economists cannot make clear statements about the impact on the economy as a whole.
Growing inequality, weakening institutions
Economists have differing opinions about the impact of AI, but among economic researchers it is increase inequality.
One possible example would be a further shift in dominance from labor to capital, potentially weakening the labor system in the process. At the same time, it could reduce the tax base and weaken the government’s ability to redistribute.
Most empirical studies show that AI technology Overall employment will not decreaseHowever, it is likely to reduce the relative amount of income going to low-skilled labor, which increases inequality across society.
Moreover, productivity gains from AI are likely to lead to job redistribution and trade restructuring, further increasing inequality within and between countries.
As a result, controlling the rate of adoption of AI technology could slow the pace of social and economic restructuring. This provides a longer window for adjustment between relative losers and beneficiaries.
Faced with the rise of robotics and AI, governments may mitigate income inequality and its negative effects with policies aimed at reducing inequality of opportunity.
![Meta Tweet, Yann LeCun](https://www.startupdaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Meta-tweet.png)
Yann LeCun, chief AI scientist at Meta, took to Twitter this week to share his thoughts on the future direction of AI.
What is left for humans?
Famous economist Jeffrey Sachs once said
The only thing humans can do in the age of AI is to be human. This is something that robots and AI cannot do.
But what does that mean exactly? At least economically?
In traditional economic models, humans are often synonymous with “labor” and are also optimization agents. If machines can not only do the work, but also make decisions and even generate ideas, what are we left with?
The rise of AI is compelling economists to develop more complex representations of the “economic agents” that exist in humans and their models.
Like American economists David Parks and Michael Wellman I got itthe world of AI agents may actually behave more like an economic theory than the human world. It interacts through new rules and incentive systems that are completely different from those tailored to humans.”
Importantly, having a better conception of what a “human” is in economics should also help us think about what new features AI will bring to the economy.
Will AI bring some kind of fundamentally new production technology, or will it tinker with existing ones? Is AI just a substitute for labor and human capital, or will it be an independent economic agent in the economic system? Is it?
Answering these questions is essential for economists and for understanding how the world will change in the years to come.
- Lou Ying YingResearch Associate, Center for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, and Economic Modeler, Shiro
This article is reprinted from conversation Under Creative Commons License.read Original work.