Below is an excerpt from the recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine PRO, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium market newsletter. To be the first to have these insights and other on-chain Bitcoin market analysis delivered directly to your mailbox, APPLY NOW.
Analysis of the on-chain bottom indicator
in this week Dashboard release, we have highlighted some key on-chain metrics that we would like to track. In Bitcoin’s short history, many on-chain cyclical indicators are now pointing to what appears to be the classic bottom of the Bitcoin price. The market extremes, potential highs and lows, are where these indicators have proven to be most useful.
However, these indicators should be considered in conjunction with many other macroeconomic factors, and readers should consider the possibility that this could be another bear market rally. That said, if the price can sustain above $20,000 in the short term, the bullish indicators show a compelling sign of more long-term accumulation here.
A key tail risk is the potential misperception of a Federal Reserve policy turnaround in the second half of the year, plus the potential for a market-wide selloff of risky assets currently pricing in a “soft landing” style scenario. It’s sex. Many economic indicators and data still indicate that we may be in the middle of a bear market similar to that of 2000-2002 or 2007-08, and the worst has yet to occur. Hmm. This long-term bear market is what makes this Bitcoin cycle different compared to other Bitcoin cycles in the past, and we would like to use the past Bitcoin cycles from 2012 onwards as a perfect analogue to today. That’s what makes it so difficult.
That said, from a Bitcoin-native perspective, the story is clear. Surrender has clearly unfolded and HODLer is on the line.
![Bitcoin Magazine Pro Banner](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cfl_progressive%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700/MTg4OTY2NzE1NzcyNjQyNjc1/bitcoin-magazine-pro-banner.jpg)
Given the transparency of Bitcoin ownership, we can see the different cohorts of Bitcoin holders very clearly. In this case, we are showing the realized price of the average Bitcoin holder and the same indicator for both long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH).
Realized Price, STH Realized Price, and LTH Realized Price help you understand where different cohorts of the market are profiting or falling short.
On a monthly basis, realized losses turned into realized gains for the first time since April last year.
Surrender and take losses have reversed into profit realization across the network. This is a very healthy sign of complete surrender.
Given the current elasticity of bitcoin supply, there is a strong argument that it will be difficult to shake off current market participants, as historically few short-term holders or many long-term holders attest. I have. Especially given the ordeal it has endured over the past 12 months.
Statistically, long-term Bitcoin holders are typically unperturbed by Bitcoin price volatility. Data show a healthy amount of accumulation throughout 2022, despite massive risk-off events in both Bitcoin and legacy markets.
Bitcoin’s supply-side dynamics look stronger than ever, while legacy market liquidity dynamics should be noted. .
Like this content? subscribe now Receive PRO articles directly in your inbox.
![Bitcoin Magazine Pro Subscribe Button](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700/MTg5NjAyNTYzMTMyMjM2ODE4/bmpro---subscribe-button.png)