As we gear up for the final week of February and the start of March 2023, see what analysts have to say about the futures market using Bollinger Bands’ visual representation of market dynamics. please. It also discusses what to watch out for in upcoming economic and corporate reports.
E-Mini Dow Jones Futures Daily Chart
March E-Mini Dow Jones futures fell below 33,000 last week, reaching late December support. The 50-day moving average failed to hold as support as the YM fell to his 32600 which was his support area in early December. The Bollinger Bands have widened in last week’s downtrend, followed by price action in the lower bands, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD indicator is in a bearish state and the RSI is heading towards an oversold situation. If the Dow continues to sell out, support could be found at 32050 (the 50% retracement from the May 2022 high to the October 2022 low). Upside resistance can be found at 33750 (76% Fib retracement level and convergence of 20 and 50 day moving averages).
crude oil futures daily chart
Crude Oil futures for April continue to trade in a range between 70.50 and 83.83, with the lower Bollinger Bands acting as support as prices approach it. MACD turned bearish last week as the 50-day moving average failed to support. Last weekend’s gains pushed the RSI to 45, giving some hope to the bullish trend. Downside support can be found at 73.6, the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands.
Euro FX Futures Daily Chart
Euro FX futures continued their decline in March, finding support at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous uptrend (from September 2022 low to early February high). The price continues to ride the lower Bollinger Bands, which is a bearish sign. The MACD histogram has been negative since late January and shows no signs of a slowing trend. The RSI is approaching the 30 oversold level, but the market may continue to sell if it crosses that level. Look for possible support at 1.036 (50% retracement level) if this downtrend continues. If higher, this market could hit 1.073 (Fib level 23%, 20 and 50 day moving averages).
gold futures daily chart
Gold futures for April found support at 1812. This is the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend (from the November 2022 low to his February high). The price is trading towards the lower Bollinger Bands, which usually coincides with band widening, but these bands appear to be a certain distance apart. The MACD is very bearish as every part of its research is negative and does not indicate a trend reversal. The RSI has broken below the oversold level of 30. A break above 30 could mean a trend change sign (it’s not there yet). The 61% Fib retracement level at 1773 could hold as support if the trend continues. If 1725 is out of line with the 76% Fib retracement level, and out of line with previous support in July and August of last year. A Fib level of 38% could be a resistance in case of a rally.
Economic report for the week of February 27th – March 3rd
The manufacturing and services component of the economy dominates this week’s report, with the PMI Manufacturing Finals on Wednesday and the PMI Composite Finals on Friday (both at 9:45am ET). Also on Wednesday, the ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending Report will be released at 10am. Regional reports are released on Monday (Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey) and Tuesday (Chicago PMI and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index). These reports provide insight into the health of the U.S. economy and the volatility of stock indices and bond futures that can influence Federal Reserve decisions. Thursday’s unemployment claims are a key piece of the labor market puzzle. Better-than-expected numbers could shake the market as the Federal Reserve looks for a cool labor market to keep inflation in check. Reports reflecting the housing market occur on Tuesday in the Case-Shiller and FHFA price indices, and on Wednesday (the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Report).
*** Market movement indicator
* Advantages Special Note
date | economic report |
---|---|
Monday, February 27th | 8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Order 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey* 11:00 AM ET: Export inspection |
Tuesday, February 28th | 8:30 AM ET: International Trade of Goods [Advance] 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9:00 a.m. ET: FHFA Home Price Index 9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI* 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence 10:00 am ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index* 1:00 PM ET: Money Supply 3:00 PM ET: Farm Prices |
Wednesday, March 1 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Application 7:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement 9:45 AM ET: PMI Manufacturing Final*** 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index* 10:00 AM ET: Construction costs* 10:30 AM ET: EIA Oil Status Report* 15:00 ET: Oil 3:00 PM ET: Grain Grinding |
Thursday, March 2 | 7:00 AM ET: Car Sales 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 8:30 AM ET: Apply for Unemployment*** 8:30 AM ET: Productivity and Cost 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report* 4:30 PM ET: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet |
Friday March 3rd | 9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Finals*** 10:00 AM ET: ISM Service Index 12:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Governor Raphael Bostic Speech 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count 4:15 PM ET: Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Governor Thomas Barkin Speech |
Companies reporting earnings for the week of February 27th – March 3rd
Retail and Canadian banks take center stage this week. Target will report back on Tuesday morning – pay close attention to the guidance it provides along with earnings as it will give us a look into the health of the retail economy in 2023. Get more economic insight from Macy’s and Nordstrom (luxury retailers). Canadian banks include Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, RBC, and TD Bank. These tell us about the Canadian economy, which is especially important for CAD FX traders. Computer hardware companies HP and Dell also reported this week.
BMO = before market opening
AMC = After Market Close
* indicates that this company is included in the S&P 500 index
date | Earnings report |
---|---|
Monday, February 27th | Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK.B): EPS estimate of $3.31, earnings estimate of $–.–B (BMO)* Occidental Petroleum (OXY): EPS estimate of $1.83, earnings estimate of $8.66 billion (AMC)* |
Tuesday, February 28th | AutoZone, Inc. (AZO): EPS Estimate of $21.33, Earnings Estimate of $3.56 Billion (BMO)* Bank of Montreal (BMO): EPS estimate of $2.29, earnings estimate of $5.4 billion (BMO) Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): $1.52 EPS Estimate, $6.20B Earnings Estimate (BMO) Target (TGT): EPS Estimate of $1.38, Earnings Estimate of $30.71 Billion (BMO)* Agilent Technologies (A): 1.30 EPS estimate, $1.7 billion revenue estimate (AMC)* HP Inc. (HPQ): EPS estimate of $0.74, revenue estimate of $14.15 billion (AMC)* |
Wednesday, March 1 | Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR): Estimated EPS of $2.03, Estimated Revenue of $7.59 Billion (BMO)* Kohl’s Corporation (KSS): EPS Estimate of $1.02, Earnings Estimate of $6 Billion (BMO)* Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW): EPS Estimate of $22.24, Earnings Estimate of $22.75 Billion (BMO)* Royal Bank of Canada (RY): $2.19 EPS Estimate, $9.95B Earnings Estimate (BMO) Salesforce (CRM): $0.73 EPS Estimate, $8 Billion Revenue Estimate (AMC)* |
Thursday, March 2 | Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD): $0.72 EPS estimate, $15.37B earnings estimate (BMO) Best Buy Co., Inc. (CBRE): estimated EPS of $2.09, estimated revenue of $14.7 billion (BMO)* Macy’s, Inc. (M): EPS Estimate of $1.57, Earnings Estimate of $8.25 Billion (BMO)* TD Bank (TD): $1.66 EPS Estimate, $9.20B Earnings Estimate (BMO) Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST): EPS estimate of $3.21, revenue estimate of $55.47 billion (AMC)* Dell Technologies (DELL): EPS estimate of $1.39, revenue estimate of $23.67 billion (AMC)* Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN): $0.65 EPS Estimate, $4.35 Billion Earnings Estimate (AMC)* |
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