The outlook for gold has had its ups and downs over the past five years.
During this time, the gold ounce has traded in a broad range between about $1,050 and $1,350, sometimes influenced by risk factors such as economic changes and monetary policy, and sometimes supported by safe haven demand and investment interest.
From physical gold to gold stocks to gold exchange-traded funds, it’s worth taking a retrospective look at the outlook for gold for those interested in it as a financial investment. From price trends to supply and demand, there are many important factors to consider before entering the market.
Scroll down to read what analysts and gold mining executives have predicted for the gold price and market from 2015 to the present, and what the future really holds for yellow metals.
2019 Gold Outlook — Market Waits for the Fed to Blink
Starting price: USD 1,280.40
2019 analyst gold price predictions — The Fed was one of the leading indicators for gold market watchers in early 2019, with many expecting the central bank to halt or limit rate hikes later this year. Analysts also pointed to the movement of the US dollar, saying a fall could return demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets.
CEO gold price predictions for 2019 — Overall, gold mining industry executives expected 2018 to be better than ever. As 2019 began, they wanted the market and the gold price to improve. They expected investors to diversify in gold and set aside trades and investments in hotspots such as cannabis, cryptocurrencies and lithium.
Q1 2019 — The year began with the Fed’s announcement of plans to pause the monetary tightening cycle, resulting in renewed demand for gold among investors. But despite the rate hike news, the gold price rose only 0.85% in the quarter, struggling to break above US$1,300, with mining analysts saying the still-strong US dollar has slowed the market’s performance. said it does.
Outlook for Gold in 2018 — Fed Hikes, USD Weighs Gold
Starting price: USD 1,302.50. Final price: US$1,280.40.Volatility: -1.4 percent
2018 analyst gold price predictions — Heading into 2018, pundits were advising investors to look to the Fed and geopolitics for clues as to how the price of gold will move. At least three rate hikes by central banks are expected, and after geopolitical tensions buoyed yellow metals in 2017, market watchers expected more impact later in the year.
CEO gold price predictions for 2018 — Gold mining executives were generally positive about the gold price early in the year, arguing it would be a strong year for gold and less interest in competing sectors such as cannabis and cryptocurrencies. They expected junior stocks to become more liquid.
Q1 2018 — In the first quarter of 2018, the gold price hovered between approximately US$1,300 and US$1,350. Gold fell ahead of the Fed’s first rate hike of the year, but ended the period up about 3%.
Q2 2018 — Gold ounce prices fell 6% in the second quarter after rising in the first quarter, below the key US$1,300 level. While the Fed raised interest rates for the second time, putting pressure on the precious metals and gold markets, investors shunned yellow metals, fearing the escalating US-China trade war would hurt both economies. Gold’s low during this period was $1,247.10 on June 28th and its high was $1,352.80 on April 11th.
Q3 2018 — Gold prices fell by nearly 5% in the third quarter. It fell below US$1,200 in mid-August due to the US dollar’s strength and the Fed’s third interest rate hike. The yellow metal traded between about US$1,175 and US$1,250.
Q4 2018 — The price of an ounce of gold rose in the final quarter of the year, up almost 8%. The Fed hiked rates for the fourth time in December, but the fall in major U.S. indices sent investors rushing back to physical gold and other assets as a safe haven. Gold prices were just $20 short of $1,300 by the end of the year.
Gold Outlook 2018 Expectations and Realities — Gold was down around 1.5% at the end of the fourth quarter, and industry insiders agreed it could have gotten worse given the headwinds it faced. These include (as expected) the Fed’s steady rate hikes and continued investor apathy as the dollar strengthens.
Geopolitics moved gold and other precious metals in 2018, perhaps not as expected. Instead of driving up prices like the concerns over Donald Trump in 2017, the trade war has weighed heavily on the gold market.
Gold outlook 2017 — Trump uncertainty pushes gold higher
Starting price: USD 1,150.90. Final price: USD 1,302.50.Rate of climb: +14.59 percent
2017 analyst gold price predictions — 2016 brought uncertainty to gold, silver and other precious metals, largely in the form of Brexit and the election of Trump as US President. As 2017 began, analysts were curious about what these big changes would bring to the market. The general consensus was that the price of gold will rise, but there will be some ebbs and flows.
CEO gold price predictions for 2017 — As 2017 began, gold mining industry executives also watched closely to see how Trump would affect the price of an ounce of gold and the prospects of gold stocks and gold producers. Their outlook for gold was generally positive, but most pointed to the president as a wild card that could move gold up or down.
Q1 2017 — Despite the Fed rate hikes, the gold ounce price saw a big gain in the first quarter, up nearly 9% on the back of uncertainty and concerns about Trump. The quarterly high of US$1,257.64 was recorded in mid-February, about a month before the Fed announced monetary policy.
Q2 2017 — Gold’s upward momentum ended in the second quarter, falling 0.4% over the same period. It approached the US$1,300 mark in early June, but never crossed it, and soon began to fall after further Fed rate hike decisions. Concerns about geopolitical issues such as Trump and Brexit remain, but not enough to stimulate investment demand in precious metals such as gold.
Q3 2017 — September was one of the worst months for gold this year, but it still grew over 3% in the third quarter. Tensions between the US and North Korea contributed to the rise, but the rise was tempered by news that the Fed would raise rates one more time this year. The gold ounce price peaked for the period on Sept. 7, reaching US$1,348.60 following weak US employment data.
Q4 2017 — In the fourth quarter, yellow metals rose another 3%, ending the year with an ounce of gold just above US$1,300. Gold’s upward momentum came despite the Fed’s third rate hike. Jerome Powell was nominated by President Trump to chair the Fed during the same period.
Gold Outlook 2017 Hopes and Realities — An ounce of gold rose nearly 15% in 2017 due to market uncertainty, with President Trump predictably leading profits and investment interest.
Gold outlook 2016 — Gold surges on Brexit, falls on Trump
Starting price: USD 1,061. Final price: 1,150.90 USD.Rate of climb: +10.48 percent
2016 analyst gold price predictions — After the price of the ounce of gold fell sharply in 2015, mining analysts were expecting another crash in 2016 for precious metals such as gold. The strength of the US currency and economic growth were the top risk concerns, with some big players calling for a drop in the price of gold. Below the psychologically important level of US$1,000.
Still, market players believed that a weak global economy, weak stock markets and a lack of interest rate hikes by the Fed were potential positive growth drivers for investment demand with room for future increases.
CEO gold price predictions for 2016 — Despite lackluster performance last year, many gold mining executives expect a turnaround in the gold price outlook for 2016, with one commenting that “a deterioration in the gold market is unlikely” bottom. Others in the mining industry pointed to a decline in the number of gold companies (due to delistings and M&A activity) as a positive. US currency appreciation and economic growth were identified as potential risk factors.
Gold Outlook 2016 Expectations and Realities — The ounce of gold ended the year up more than 10 percent, but closed well below its July high of US$1,365.40.
Brexit played a major role in boosting investment demand for yellow metals and other precious metals, with investors flocking to gold amid heightened concerns about uncertainty and risk following the UK’s decision to leave the EU. However, by the fourth quarter, with the election of President Trump and the Fed rate hike in December, gold had fallen to around $1,150.
GOLD OUTLOOK 2015 — STRENGTH OF US CURRENCY WILL ATTAIN GOLD’S MOMENTUM
Starting price: USD 1,189.80. Final price: USD 1,061.Volatility: -11.27 percent
2015 analyst gold price predictions — At the beginning of 2015, mining industry experts said they expected gold prices to remain weak in the first half of the year on expectations of interest rate hikes. Then, as the pressure dissipated, gold ounces increased in the second half of the year. In general, 2015 was expected to be quieter than 2014, where he had a particularly bad year, 2013.
Gold Outlook 2015 Expectations and Realities — While the outlook for the gold ounce price was fairly positive at the beginning of 2015, the yellow metal did not grow and ended up dropping more than 10%. Although the Fed hiked rates as expected, the rate hike did not materialize until December, and the prospect of a rate hike weighed on investment demand for gold and other precious metals throughout the year. The strength of the US currency also weighed on gold prices.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, have no direct investment rights in any company mentioned in this article.
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