Q1 2023 is coming to an end, but before we get the big picture Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA)EV Reader will announce delivery numbers over the weekend.
Ahead of the announcement, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner tweaked its forecasts, but not for the better.
“Tesla expects to report shipments of 416,000 units in the first quarter of 2023, up 34% year-over-year and up 3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting an uncertain macro environment after price cuts. and responding to competitive pricing in China,” the analyst explained.
Due to the lower sales volume, Rosner also lowered its first quarter earnings guidance to $22.5 billion from $23.3 billion. At the same time, the gross margin (excluding credit) forecast was haircut from -420bp to -600bp on a continuum, reaching 18.3% for the quarter. This figure takes into account “improvements in factory and battery start-up costs” and beneficial contributions from the IRA’s battery production credits, but recent price cuts in China, the United States and Europe and “retroactive FSD This is offset by “recurrence prevention”. revenue recognition. The result is an EPS outlook of $0.69, compared to $0.84 previously. Both top-line and bottom-line numbers are below Street’s earnings forecast of $23.5 billion and his EPS forecast of $0.87.
The first quarter is expected to represent a ‘trough’ for the year, with Tesla stressing that it expects GM Automotive (excluding credit, which includes FSD) to remain in the 20%-plus range each quarter. But Rosner thinks: A year as unpredictable as this one, achieving that target depends on “volume/price dynamics and macro conditions.”
For the foreseeable future, Rosner believes investor concerns about volume, price and margin dynamics are “justified.” This could keep the stock in a range. That could change later in the year as we learn more about our next-generation platform, along with potential new products.
Overall, despite the issues, Rosner is bullish on Tesla’s positioning.
“We continue to view Tesla as the EV leader in the automotive sector, due to its superior cost structure and agility in the challenging macro conditions that may emerge for the rest of the year,” Anna said. I’ve put together a list.
As such, Rosner has repeatedly stated a buy rating and a price target of $250 on TSLA stock, implying 30% growth over the next year. (To see Rosner’s achievements, click here)
Overall, 19 other analysts join Rosner in the bullish camp, adding 10 holds and 3 sells, arguing a moderate buy consensus view for the stock. (look Tesla stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the featured analyst only. This content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
