The year after we got married, my wife and I moved to the Florida Keys. We were chasing a dream — a house on stilts in Islamorada (of Key’s best spot, hands down).
At first, I couldn’t find anything in that small real estate market, so I settled on Little Torch Key. Located halfway between Islamorada and Key West, the city is essentially a no man’s land.
During my first week there, I perused classified ads in the local papers and found a tow trailer to store my overflow items.not for the faint of heart” caught my eye.
It was for a “customized” ’92 Chevrolet Monte Carlo. An engine sticking out of the hood… twin exhaust pipes… nitrous oxide… and no muffler. The seller was generous with the disclaimer: ‘Fishtail made easy’.
The phrase “not for the faint of heart” quickly became our favorite inside joke.
Then… we started joking.
Blown tin can on the way to Cuba
Our home in Torch Key was a “prefab” double-width trailer on a concrete slab. Before signing the lease, I overlooked how close we were to the gin-clear water found only in Keys and the Bahamas. bottom.
The winter that followed was unusually windy, with wind speeds of 30 to 40 knots and gusts twice as high. For a month Corinne would wake up in the middle of the night to see trees bent outside. She assured us that our “tin cans” would be cut off and sent to Cuba on the way.
We were tied to a lease so all I could do was keep it light..
Ultimately, our tin cans never end up in the ocean. We dodged next year’s hurricane season. Finally, I found the house on stilts in Islamorada that I was looking for.
Living in a trailer a stone’s throw from the breakwater was scary. “Not for the faint of heart”, sure.
Regardless, That year on Little Torch was, so far, the happiest year of our 20-year relationship.
We spent most nights sipping cocktails and stargazing from that seawall (after the January winds had passed). Each morning, as the sun dipped below the horizon, we paddled off the edge and headed out to mangrove islands to spot baby nurse sharks, eagle rays and rainbow fish.
We were 30 miles away from a decent grocery store, but that didn’t matter as we were just jumping over the breakwater and into the 15 foot channel where the lobsters lived.
I have a hard time putting into words how magical the place is. How awe-inspiring our daily lives were! The size and quality of the “reward” obtained by bravely challenging tin cans.
It’s okay to take a little risk every now and then. Especially when the risks are calculated…and the potential rewards outweigh the momentary discomfort.
As investors, we should keep this lesson in mind. No risk, no reward.
Despite this bear market, I think we’ve calculated risk very well these days.
Method is as follows…
For the Bravest Among Us — Trading Options with ‘Wednesday Windfall’
For the past two years, I’ve been using a strategy that can be equally described as a “custom” ’92 Monte Carlo and a can of torch keys.
In short, I buy call options every Monday afternoon — with only four days to expiration — with the goal of selling them on Wednesday afternoon and making a profit..
Mike Carr shared yesterday why this strategy actually yields favorable odds. is a good way to lose money quickly.
But for a few weeks…and with strategies that allow you to earn huge rewards while minimizing unnecessary risk as much as possible…
that’s just a good way make money fast… many of money.
If you consider yourself one of the braver traders among us and are ready to take advantage of this volatility that clearly won’t go away anytime soon, then listen carefully.
Because what I’m about to say can lead to the fastest, most profitable trades you’ve ever seen.
My wednesday windfall The strategy summarizes 3 critical steps:
- First, take advantage of the downward trend in stock prices on Mondays and enjoy two of the best days, Tuesday and Wednesday.
- I then use a custom algorithm I developed to identify which stocks are most likely to pull back in the short term and then surge over the next two days. These particular setups give you the best chance of getting quick profits.
- Third, I scour the options market for bargain contracts that offer the best “value for money”.
Of course, this process and deal doesn’t always work.
But when you do… the results can be amazing!
Ever since I started recommending Wednesday’s windfall transactioninitially to a small group of trusted contacts, the average trading result is 9.4% profit since inception.The average win rate is 102%.
And it produces outstanding winners of 192%, 220% and 262%.
There were some dogs along the way, no doubt about that. That is to be expected when trading options.
But as long as you’re winning more than you’re losing…and those winners outnumber your losers…you’re golden.
That’s exactly what we do.
Oh, yes, wednesday windfall Certainly not for the faint of heart. It’s not something you want to put into your grandchildren’s college funds…and it’s probably just a small part of your overall portfolio.
Many of the weekly results are binary. You lose most of your initial investment, or multiples of 100%, 200% or even 300%.
This means that the volatility will intensify as the weeks pass. It must have been something like Fishtail Monte Carlo.
According to statisticians, it takes 30 separate data points to conclude anything significant.
Therefore, traders should not draw conclusions from the results of the last 2, 10 or even 20 trades.
That’s why systematic investors perform “backtesting”. That is, to see the expected results when he makes 30 trades. 300 Also 3,000 times.
After all, the volatility of our week-to-week results has proven not to be for the faint of heart. In a stable bear market environment, it provided a worthwhile reward.
If wednesday windfall It sounds like you’re in your alley, but here’s an unscripted conversation I had recently with Chief Analyst Matt Clark that detailed how it all works.can access Here.
nice to meet you,
Adam OdellChief Investment Strategist, money and market
PS Before I run, I have an important question…
With such volatility in the market, many prefer to stick to “for the faint of heart” safe assets like gold.
I am with Charles Sizemore, Mike Carr and Amber Lancaster on Monday Banyan Edge PodcastAnd we would love to know what you think.
click here Tell me if you’re bullish or bearish on the shiny yellow metal…
market edge: Debt Ceiling Breached: What Now?
Well it happened…
On Thursday, we officially hit the debt ceiling.
It sounds scary…and it is. But what does that really mean, and more importantly, what do we need to do about it?
Each party has its own take on this, but let’s start with the facts.
The debt ceiling is the maximum amount of debt that the federal government can bear. Back in 1917, Congress passed the Second Liberty Bond Act, which formally set the debt ceiling. Ironically, the idea was to actually make it easier for the government to borrow. Prior to this legislation, Congress had to approve all bond sales. In theory, it has evolved over the years to put limits on government spending.
Of course, we know that’s ridiculous.Every time the government starts hitting the limit, Congress simply raises it. will simply raise limits rather than be forced to cut. That’s essentially what happens.
The country’s debt is now 3 times Since 2010, it has risen in both Democratic and Republican administrations. That amount now exceeds his $31 trillion. Stop for a moment and think about it.
Visually, this is the US Federal Debt Chart. Its upward trend is becoming steeper.
Theoretically, all of this could continue to happen. But this week, it broke the cap for the first time in years and hasn’t raised it yet.
In other words, the government cannot borrow money. Without borrowing capacity, governments cannot function at full speed and must cut unnecessary spending. And if this drags on, the U.S. economy could be hit hard, and the damage could accelerate by the day.
Why is this time different?
We’ve seen this movie before, but it usually involves concessions and increased federal debt ceilings.
But this time, House Republicans made it a campaign promise to limit federal spending. Their plan is to use the debt ceiling for negotiations. And after making a very loud and very public statement, it would be impossible for them to get off of them without putting on a good show first.
Congress will raise the debt ceiling…eventually. Our budget deficit is over $400 billion. A failure to raise the debt ceiling would immediately force him to cut $400 billion in spending.
Cutting government waste seems like a great thing…and we need to do more of it…but every dollar cut was a dollar that used to go somewhere else And whoever was supposed to get that dollar is a potential voter or campaign contributor.
Also remember that Congress has already authorized the expenditures necessary for the debt to cover. increase. But hey, it makes them look retweeted and important… so here we are.
Again, there’s a 0% chance the cap won’t be raised… eventually. Members of Parliament like their comfortable jobs and they want to keep them.
But House Republicans will absolutely demand at least modest spending cuts in return for raising it. Politically, they can’t afford to walk away with nothing. And until someone blinks… it gets nasty.
What will happen to my portfolio?
In 2011 there was a near miss. Congress and the White House couldn’t agree to raise the debt ceiling, and Standard & Poor’s went so far as to cut the country’s credit rating, citing the “political brink” that created instability.
It was a volatile time for the stock…but it passed quickly. Interestingly, bond yields actually fell even as credit ratings were downgraded. Despite the most dysfunctional governments, investors perceived government bonds to be the safest asset.
How this will play out remains to be seen. The worse the situation, the more likely stocks will suffer in the short term and the more likely bonds will rise in the short term.
Gold is also an interesting play here. Gold is considered “anti-dollar” by many. Gold has already been interesting as an inflation and dollar hedge, but could it also be a debt ceiling hedge?
I would like to know your view on that. click here Let us know if you’re bullish or bearish on gold and we’ll share your answers on Monday’s podcast.